2977	 The Stage Hypothesis and the S-Curve Some Contradictory Evidence	 This paper presents the results of a study testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan s stage model of computer development in an organization. Research on the data processing budgets of California counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use of budgets as a basis for a stage model. However the results do not invalidate the concept of a stage model. The analysis suggests an alternative model of budget growth and a separation between models of budgeting growth and growth stages in the development of the computer resource. budgets stage theories stage hypothesis
